If you are planning on trying to win one of the major “Collect to win” prizes, these are the odds we think you should be expecting, even if you have collected all but one of the tickets needed, based on the number of prizes avaailable: 1 in 136 million (one prize each) So it’s entirely possible that the probability of finding that final red ticket in the set could be as low as 2 in 136 million. In this year’s game there are two prizes available of a year of free fuel by collecting the three red tickets: The Strand, Fleet Street and Trafalgar Square. Going by previous observations, it seems that for each “Collect to win” ticket colour, all but one of each set will likely by very commonly distributed. While we know how many “Instant win” and “Chance” tickets there are, the details around the “Collect to win” part of the McDonald’s Monopoly game are more closely guarded. Working the numbers means you have a 0.5% chance of obtaining a Chance ticket that will also get you a prize, so it’s not a strategy you should be banking on. McDonald’s says one in five, or 20%, of Chance tickets will result in an instant win. There are 3,415,852 “Chance” tickets available, so you have roughly a 2.5% chance of getting a “Chance” ticket with your purchase. McDonald’s simply promises an average rate of an instant win, owing to the fact that about 20% of physical tickets include a prize of some sort. Collecting five tickets does not mean that one of them will always be an instant win ticket. It’s important not fall for the Gambler’s Fallacy when trying to collect instant win tickets. Of course, 13.2% plus 8.7% gives a 21.9% chance of winning an instant prize, on average, which roughly agrees with the one-in-five that McDonald’s claims. McDonald’s says there is a one-in-five chance of winning an instant prize, which could either be a food prize or a non-food prize.Ībout 18 million tickets yield instant food prizes, which gives a roughly 13.2% chance of winningĪbout 11.8 million tickets yield instant non-food prizes, which gives a roughly 8.7% chance of winning While we have no way of determining whether or not this maximum is reached, we can still get a general idea of our chances of winning a prize by using these values. This year, McDonald’s says 136,634,083 tickets will be distributed across the fastfood giant’s restaurants, and lists the maximum number of prizes available. Using some fairly basic number-crunching, we can get a better picture of what our chances are of winning a shiny new car just by purchasing a Big Mac meal. But what it does tell us is the maximum number of prizes that can be awarded for each prize type. To win one of these prizes, you need to collect all “Collect to win” tickets of the same colour, as you would playing the traditional Monopoly game.įor obvious reasons, McDonald’s doesn’t tell us much about how these tickets are distributed across Australia. The “Collect to win” tickets are the real meat of the game, and yield the major prizes: sometimes a car or large amounts of money. Instant prizes are either a McDonald’s food item such as a burger, or a non-food prize such as a movie ticket or a cash gift card, redeemed by entering the 12-digit code on the ticket into a phone app.Ī “Chance card” ticket also provides a 12-digit code which, when entered into an app, provides another opportunity to nab an instant prize or a digital “Collect to win” ticket. Seven reasons we play lotto – even though we know we probably won't win the jackpot
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